عبدالقیوم چوہدری
محفلین
I do believe Imran Khan had been angling for threat of mass-scale agitation for quite some time. He has created a pretext in hearts and minds of die-hard PTI supporters, if not in actual fact. Perception rules, not facts. I've seen a number of PTI supporters and they are just as much in thrall of Imran Khan as Jiyalas of yore were in thrall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. They are not open to logic. They want change and they are not ready to listen to anything
I have read some very cogent and compelling arguments on a poll-thread ( Do you support Azadi March? ) and I am so glad that people are showing a great deal of maturity in their posts there in how they assess political situation and ۔ramification of Imran Khan's agitation-based approach
I do suspect Imran Khan can not be all that dumb, that he does not understand the logical result and the implications thereof
If he sticks with this approach, then it means that he is convinced that the Federal government would not let him work in KPK with peace. It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Read on to find out why
I see three scenarios
(1)
PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is chaos and bloodshed. Army moves in and the country is put under Martial law. The following could happen
A) Army announces elections after 3 months. Imran Khan has no guarantee that he would improve his chances, especially when people feel robbed and PML-N has a victim card. No political party would now go near PTI
B) Army scraps constitution and forces Supreme Court to give a 2 year dispensation. PTI still comes out a looser at the end
C) Army suspends constitution and Gen Raheel goes the Musharraf route of assuming presidentship and allows delayed and rigged elections. PTI still
looses
(2)
PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is that government beats the crap out of PTI workers and PAT workers. Army watches coolly and does nothing. The following could then happen
A) PML-N goes on front foot. The governor dissolves the KPK cabinet and invites other parties to form a government. PTI is left to cry in a corner and PML-N, JUI-F, JI, & Aftab Sherpao form a government. Federal government supports this set up to complete a big infrastructure project or two in KPK. Coupled with better Law & Order situation and curbing of militancy, PML-N gets to claim an improvement in KPK. PTI would come out the looser
B) Federal government does nothing. PTI goes back to governing KPK and has to keep looking over its shoulder to see if it is secure. Coalition partners would be chaffing at PTI's blind plunge into agitational politics and mull options. Federal government gives a hard time to KPK government and at the end of its term in 2018, PTI-led KPK government has an efficiency argument, but no particular visual mark of development. PTI comes out the looser
C) PTI dissolves provincial assembly and forces a re-election. KPK voters are known to be fickle and they would likely punish PTI for having created a needless hassle. PTI would come out the looser. In case PTI resigns from Federal government, they would loose seats for sure. More loss for PTI
(3)
Qadri does what he does best and creates chaos. Imran Khan shrewdly makes a deal with beleaguered Federal Government while Army acts as a guarantor. PML-N introduces a bill in Parliament to improve the electoral process via reforms. The following can happen
A) PML-N claims that they are doing what they planned to do all along. PTI makes some gains. IK declares moral victory. Electorate makes its own guesses
B) PML-N drags the process and after a year, PTI finds itself in the same spot. With a bit more than 2 years to next elections, nobody would care to give him the support he feels that he needs on the streets. PTI has to go back to governing KPK as in 2B (above)
Based on my analysis above, the best PTI can hope for is 3A. While most likely result would be 3B. Anything else would be loss for PTI and Imran Khan
In any case Imran Khan can not and will not become PM before 2018. If he has any smarts, he would make efforts to organize PTI into an established party that would be his bright legacy. If he does so, PTI would do more for Pakistan in the long-term than
Imran Khan could do as PM in a single term
Source
I have read some very cogent and compelling arguments on a poll-thread ( Do you support Azadi March? ) and I am so glad that people are showing a great deal of maturity in their posts there in how they assess political situation and ۔ramification of Imran Khan's agitation-based approach
I do suspect Imran Khan can not be all that dumb, that he does not understand the logical result and the implications thereof
If he sticks with this approach, then it means that he is convinced that the Federal government would not let him work in KPK with peace. It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Read on to find out why
I see three scenarios
(1)
PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is chaos and bloodshed. Army moves in and the country is put under Martial law. The following could happen
A) Army announces elections after 3 months. Imran Khan has no guarantee that he would improve his chances, especially when people feel robbed and PML-N has a victim card. No political party would now go near PTI
B) Army scraps constitution and forces Supreme Court to give a 2 year dispensation. PTI still comes out a looser at the end
C) Army suspends constitution and Gen Raheel goes the Musharraf route of assuming presidentship and allows delayed and rigged elections. PTI still
looses
(2)
PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is that government beats the crap out of PTI workers and PAT workers. Army watches coolly and does nothing. The following could then happen
A) PML-N goes on front foot. The governor dissolves the KPK cabinet and invites other parties to form a government. PTI is left to cry in a corner and PML-N, JUI-F, JI, & Aftab Sherpao form a government. Federal government supports this set up to complete a big infrastructure project or two in KPK. Coupled with better Law & Order situation and curbing of militancy, PML-N gets to claim an improvement in KPK. PTI would come out the looser
B) Federal government does nothing. PTI goes back to governing KPK and has to keep looking over its shoulder to see if it is secure. Coalition partners would be chaffing at PTI's blind plunge into agitational politics and mull options. Federal government gives a hard time to KPK government and at the end of its term in 2018, PTI-led KPK government has an efficiency argument, but no particular visual mark of development. PTI comes out the looser
C) PTI dissolves provincial assembly and forces a re-election. KPK voters are known to be fickle and they would likely punish PTI for having created a needless hassle. PTI would come out the looser. In case PTI resigns from Federal government, they would loose seats for sure. More loss for PTI
(3)
Qadri does what he does best and creates chaos. Imran Khan shrewdly makes a deal with beleaguered Federal Government while Army acts as a guarantor. PML-N introduces a bill in Parliament to improve the electoral process via reforms. The following can happen
A) PML-N claims that they are doing what they planned to do all along. PTI makes some gains. IK declares moral victory. Electorate makes its own guesses
B) PML-N drags the process and after a year, PTI finds itself in the same spot. With a bit more than 2 years to next elections, nobody would care to give him the support he feels that he needs on the streets. PTI has to go back to governing KPK as in 2B (above)
Based on my analysis above, the best PTI can hope for is 3A. While most likely result would be 3B. Anything else would be loss for PTI and Imran Khan
In any case Imran Khan can not and will not become PM before 2018. If he has any smarts, he would make efforts to organize PTI into an established party that would be his bright legacy. If he does so, PTI would do more for Pakistan in the long-term than
Imran Khan could do as PM in a single term
Source